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2 Tracing the Rise and Fall of Regional and Global Powers
3 Global and Regional Transitions
4 Concentration and Transitional Warfare
5 Innovation Decline and War
6 Perspectives on Overconsumption and Decline
7 The Case against Tradeoffs as a Primary Cause of Decline
8 Observations on Overextension and Territorial Traps
9 The Model Recapitulated
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analysis argue arguments army ascent Britain British capability concentration causal century challenger chapter coefficients conflict costs cross-correlations decision makers deconcentration Dehio Dependent Variable Dutch economic growth emerge emphasize empirical European region expansion F-statistics factors Figure France Germany Gilpin global and regional global leader global power global wars global-regional Granger causality hegemonic hypothesis Ibn Khaldun impact imperial increases indicator interpretation investment lead economy leadership long cycle leading sectors leading-sector growth rate leading-sector share major power military spending Napoleonic Wars naval capability share Netherlands Nonmilitary Public Consumption peak period Portugal position Private Consumption problems processes production reconcentration regional and global regional concentration regional leader regional power relationships relative decline rise sea power Soviet Soviet Union Spain spurt structural change system leaders systemic war technological innovation territorial threat tion tradeoffs transitional warfare United Vector Autoregressions Western world politics world power World War II
Strona xv - US must show the leadership necessary to establish and protect a new order that holds the promise of convincing potential competitors that they need not aspire to a greater role or pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests.
Strona xv - Second, in the non-defense areas, we must account sufficiently for the interests of the advanced industrial nations to discourage them from challenging our leadership or seeking to overturn the established political and economic order. Finally, we must maintain the mechanisms for deterring potential competitors from even aspiring to a larger regional or global role.
Strona xv - Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat of the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union.