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A mere list of the headings of chapters will show the very large number of problems which are connected with fertility, each problem having its own special importance. Thus we find chapters on The Fertility of the whole Marriages in a Population;' The Fertility of the whole Fertile Marriages in a Population at a given Time;' On the Annual Fertility of the Married Women of Child-bearing Age in a Population;'The Size of Families in a given Population at a given Time;' The Fertility of the whole Marriages in a Population that are Fertile at a given Time;' The Fertility of Fertile Marriages lasting during the whole Child-bearing Period of Life;' The Fertility of Persistently Fertile Marriages lasting during the whole Child-bearing Period of Life;' The Fertility of Persistently Fertile Wives at different Years of Married Life;'The Fertility of Fertile Wives at different Periods of Married Life;' The Degrees of Fertility of Wives Mothers of Families of different Numbers;' The Fertility of Wives Mothers Married at different Ages;' The Fertility of Persistently Fertile Wives of different Ages;' The Fertility of the Older Women;' 'The Contributions to the Adult Population by Marriages at different Ages;' and, finally, The Comparison of the Fertility and Fecundity of different Peoples.'

As might be expected, Dr. Duncan, having looked at the question from all these points of view, finds his predecessors at fault in all directions. The book is not at all prolix or dogmatic, for Dr. Duncan belongs to the very valuable class of authors who collect and digest facts, but refrain from the reflections which those facts suggest. We have been tempted to indulge in some speculations, and feel certain that all readers who can think will find new matter for consideration in the book. They will find nothing garbled, no concealment, no prejudice; but a large collection of interesting materials intelligently arranged. Professor Tait has ventured further than Dr. Duncan on the sea of speculation, and has suggested extremely simple laws, grouping vast numbers of apparently disconnected facts into two short sentences. We think the laws are proved for a mass of women, but further statistics are wanted before we can judge how far they can be applied to individual cases. Their author knows this well, and expresses some indignation at being deprived of the data by which to check and extend his curious formulæ, and we fully agree with the opinion expressed in the following passage: As in all questions of average, the value of our deductions in this matter is mainly dependent on the extent and accuracy of our data; and it is sad to think that the enormous Blue-Books which load our shelves contain so much painfully elaborated information which is of no use, and so little of those precious statistics which would at once be easy of acquirement and invaluable to physiologists.'

ART. VII.-ITALY IN 1867.

A WRITER Who at this time addresses a body of readers in the United Kingdom upon the subject of Italy, has one great advantage over those who have to speak of most other countries. He has no need to build up any substruction. He may plunge in medias res without prefacing what he has got to say of the present or future, by any historical narrative.

If we except France, Italy is the one country with the recent history of which Englishmen of our day are pretty fairly acquainted. This period of comparatively extended knowledge of Italian affairs will not be of long continuance. The names of Calatafimi and Aspromonte will probably say as little to our children as those of La Granja or Vergara say to ourselves.

The generation which read Mr. Gladstone's Neapolitan Letters, or his great speech of April 11, 1862; the generation which remembered the shock that ran through London when the news of the death of Cavour was telegraphed from Turin; the generation which welcomed Garibaldi to the English shore, will soon pass away, and the attention of those who come after us will very possibly be fixed upon political dramas in other parts of the world as exciting as that which we have watched in the fair land which the Apennine divides and the sea and the Alps surround.'

The sensation age of modern Italy would seem, if the Fates have not in store for us some great surprises, to be, in spite of recent occurrences, drawing near its end; and if much of the romantic past is not to have been in vain, what we must hope for is a prosaic future. Till now the questions, which the friends of Italy have been asking, related chiefly to conspiracies and revolts, to the chances of battle, to the fidelity of armies, to the comparative strength of rival enthusiasms. The questions which we have now to ask relate to less exciting matters. They are two in number: Will Italy soon accomplish absolute unity? and, What place is she likely to take amongst the powers of Europe?

Till within the last few weeks most well-informed persons would, we believe, have replied to the first of these questions somewhat as follows:-The perfect quiet which has prevailed at Rome since the withdrawal of the French, shows that, however widespread may be the dissatisfaction with priestly rule, there is not, in the dominions which still remain to the Pope, that burning desire to overthrow it which must inevitably lead to revolution. For some years the Papal Government has seized every pretext to send across the frontier all those active and stirring spirits who usually take the lead in times of excitement. The number

of the Roman exiles is not accurately known even by the most acute and painstaking of the diplomatists who reside in the Eternal City. Undoubtedly, however, it is extremely large -large enough to amount to a small army. If we add to these the number of persons who are known to be detained in the political prisons, we arrive at a very considerable deduction from the plotting and fighting strength of the disaffected part of the population. No stranger can pass any time in Rome without discovering that he is surrounded by persons who are hostile to the Government; but then many of them are bound over in heavy recognisances to keep the peace. They or some of their connexions are dependent on the clergy, or they know themselves to be suspected, and are certain that the smallest overt act on their part would send them either out of Rome or into some such pleasant retreat as San Michele. The probability is that the present state of things will drag its slow length along' until either the election of a less impracticable Pope or some complication in European politics which may leave the temporal Papacy without an available defender, may enable Italy to step in and assert her natural rights.

The precipitancy of one generous but ill-advised man, and the subservience of Rattazzi to the section of politicians which that man represents, very nearly deranged these calculations, and threatened, for a moment, with a sudden and disastrous overthrow not only the hopes of Italy, but even accomplished facts.

That danger has for the time passed by, and the Roman question is left pretty much as it was six months ago, with, however, these modifications:

First, All the world now sees what many, as we have said, saw before, that the explosive power of Roman disaffection is not very great.

Secondly, The extreme inconvenience of his obligations towards the Pope has been forced on the mind of the Emperor; and

Thirdly, Italy has been so deeply affronted, that unless she is to be thrown altogether into the arms of Prussia, the past must be atoned for by a much more speedy concession to her wishes than might before have been necessary.

The explanation of the conduct of the French Government seems to us simple enough. Hardly any one in Europe more cordially detests the temporal power of the Pope than does Napoleon III. His first step in public life was to engage in an insurrection against the government of priests. During the earlier stages of the late movement he seems to have been irresolute, and to have hoped that things would take such a turn as would make it unnecessary for him to interfere. Hence the

enigmatic answer to Nigra. Hence the inconsistent conduct of Prince Napoleon, who first fanned the fire at Florence, and then tried to extinguish it. As time went on, everything turned out worse and worse for the hopes of Italy, and for the secret wishes of her great protector. The successes of the Garibaldians were, to say the least, equivocal, and the attempted insurrection in Rome itself was an absurd failure. A sudden and overwhelming uprising on the Seven Hills-an extraordinary amount of energy and daring displayed by the King of Italy, might, it is just possible, have forced the not unwilling hand of the French Emperor. No happy accident came to his assistance. The Catholic party in France, always far stronger than Englishmen like to remember, was wild with excitement. The Nuncio threatened to demand his passports. The legislative session was just at hand. The whole affair had the appearance of a fiasco for the Imperial policy, and a new humiliation to France, still smarting from the disgrace of Mexico. There was nothing for it but to sacrifice Italy, and so the order went forth against her as it had once gone forth for her, 'frappez fort et frappez vite.'

Victor Emmanuel has been very much blamed for giving way, and 'making the kowtow to France,' but the answer to that reproach is, that, unfortunately up to this moment, his position with reference to the Emperor has not been very materially different from that of a great Indian potentate, say the Nizam, to the Viceroy for the time being. No doubt he might have thrown himself into the arms of the Reds, and done his best to evoke the revolutionary spirit in France-and no doubt the Nizam, if enraged beyond bearing, could do similarly desperate and dangerous things-may, perhaps, one day do so; but the occasion, great as it was, was not great enough to play double or quits, when the probability was so very violent that the result would be double and not quits.

The circular of General Menabrea, who, be it remembered, has strong conservative leanings, seems to us very dignified and impressive, although we understand it has not been well received at Florence. Associated with him, as Minister of the Interior, is the Marquis Gualterio, an extremely able man, and exceptionally fortunate in being one of the very few Italian politicians in whom the more reasonable portion of the Roman ecclesiastics have anything like confidence. He knows minutely the state of parties in Rome, and that is a science by itself, not a very dignified one assuredly, but one eminently useful to the King's Government at this moment. If any one can work effectually at Rome, it will be he. The great difficulty in the way is the Pope himself. People fancy that the Pope reigns, while Anto

VOL. XLVII.-NO. XCIV.

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nelli rules, but that is a mere delusion. All that has happened in recent years is attributable to the Pope personally. He, and he alone, is the mainspring of his own Government. He, and he alone, is responsible for the policy of resistance à l'outrance. The reasonable probability that another man so intolerably obstinate does not exist, even in the College of Cardinals, is, when combined with the hope that another might see the wisdom of retreating, at the very commencement of his reign, from a false position which was not of his own making, the ground on which many good observers have prophesied that a favourable change in the relations of Italy to the Head of the Church might be looked for after the next Conclave. We wish we could persuade ourselves that anything is to be hoped for the present from direct negotiations between Rome and Italy, even under the auspices of the man who contrived to live at Naples in perfect amity with a personage of such decided opinions as Cardinal Riario Sforza.

If the Emperor of the French would be only too happy to have his hand forced, in a creditable manner, the assembling of a conference is perhaps to be desired, although we can quite understand the dislike entertained by Ministers responsible for the policy of their respective countries, to entering upon negotiations without any definite basis. If the Emperor's dispositions are really such as we fancy, and if the conference could be assembled, it might result, if not in confining the sovereignty of the Pope to the Leonine City, which must, we think, be the ultimate solution of the present difficulty, at least in limiting the exercise of his sovereign rights to the city of Rome itself. It used to be urged against this plan, that it would be unfair to the Romans; but they have shown so little conduct or courage in recent events that no one need pause long to consider them. More difficult are the questions which would arise about the relations between the new Government and the ecclesiastical corporations which hold property in the Campagna; but if the more decisive plan cannot yet be adopted, the one suggested would at least be a step in advance. It is of course easy for highly impartial persons to say that Rome belongs to the whole world, and not to Italy. So, in a certain sense, it undoubtedly does; but the desire to possess Rome is a real political force in Italy, and it is not a political force elsewhere. Supposing even that a crusading spirit could be excited throughout the Catholic world in favour of the temporal power, the only result would be to light up the flames of religious strife throughout the globe; and few would, we think, have much doubt as to what would be the result of re-commencing the contest which was closed by the Peace of Westphalia.

The Pope will no doubt retain for some time to come his

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